There are dozens of reasons the Cowboys shouldn’t be favored to beat the Vikings, perhaps none more valid than the cold, hard fact that Dallas’ vaunted defense has been shredded on the ground in recent weeks.
Does the 28th ranked rushing defense fit the description of vaunted? Um, no.
The Cowboys let the hapless Packers gash them for 207 yards on Sunday. The Bears ripped them apart with 240 yards – and that wasn’t one of Justin Fields’ monster 150-yard performances – and the Eagles, Commanders, Giants and Buccaneers all had success running the ball against Jerry’s team.
It’s not like the Cowboys have played a murderer’s row of rushing offenses. While Dallas has faced four teams in the top 10 for rushing yards, they’ve faced three of the four worst rushing attacks including the last-place Los Angeles Rams.
So what could be the Cowboys’ biggest issue? Perhaps it’s the scheme.
NFL Network’s Brian Baldinger was perplexed watching Cowboys tape against the Packers and wondered what they were doing on a run by Aaron Jones.
“Who plays defense like this? Who? Why would anybody run their defensive tackle out of this area?” Baldinger said. “What defense is this? Why would you do that? …It’s not a hole. It’s a gorge. It’s like a canyon. You can’t make it any easier for Aaron Jones.”
Cowboys linebacker Micah Parsons, who was washed out on the play, had his own theory.
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“Until we (put) out this fire, we’re gonna keep seeing it,” said Parsons. “If people want to keep doing their own thing, we’re gonna deal with this all year.”
“We have to be accountable. We have to stay in our gaps, we gotta stop the run. Until we do that, it’s gonna be a long year,” Parson added.
The Vikings enter Sunday’s game 23rd in the NFL with 108 rushing yards per game, but that total has been suppressed by a 62-yard performance against Philadelphia and a 56-yard effort against the Commanders.
The other factor has been the boom-or-bust nature of Dalvin Cook. Football Outsiders’ success rate metric represents the player’s consistency, measured by successful running plays (the definition of success being different based on down and distance) divided by total running plays. Cook checks in at 49% – 23rd among 37 qualifying running backs.
Cook has also faced a relatively easy schedule with his DVOA ranking 12th among running backs.
According to Football Outsiders, a low success rate and high DVOA mean a running back is more prone to big runs than steady, consistent gains. This can lead to frustration for fans. Look no further than Cook’s 81-yard touchdown against the Bills.
Think about the hole that Jones ran through on Sunday. Now think about Cook running through that hole for a long touchdown. That’s what happened against the Bills and it proved to be the first strike in Minnesota’s 17-point comeback.
The Vikings haven’t had elite success on the ground but after putting up 173 rushing yards against the Cardinals and 147 against the Bills, Minnesota is taking advantage of bad rush defenses.
Dallas fits that description so far and it could lead to a big day on the ground for the Vikings.
