The lottery hit two weeks in a row as Upset Alerts delivered back-to-back major wins. Washington shocked Oregon on the road to ruin the Ducks’ College Football Playoff hopes, while TCU took care of business to beat Texas as touchdown underdogs on the road. Even Ole Miss came up just short against Alabama and Hawaii gave Utah State a late scare.
The wins delivered value of +400 and +228 and nearly doubled our output for the season. The only real whiff was betting on North Texas to beat UAB. Naturally, that was the most confident pick heading into Week 11. In Week 12, there will be several new opportunities for upsets.
Much of the SEC — along with a few other major programs — are weighed down by “SoCon Saturday” games. However, quality matchups still dot the schedule, including a pair of fascinating Big 12 games with major implications. Here are five games that jump out to us in Week 12 for money line upsets.
“Upset” is defined by odds, not rankings. All odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. Lines may shift after publication.
When: Saturday 12 p.m. ET | Where: Acrisure Stadium — Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Featured Game | Pittsburgh Panthers vs. Duke Blue Devils
Duke has quietly been one of the best stories of the season after coach Mike Elko took what was seen as one of the worst rosters in college football and immediately earned a bowl trip. The Blue Devils are on a three-game winning streak in ACC play and nearly shocked North Carolina a few weeks ago in a tight three-point loss.
Despite a better record, the Blue Devils are major underdogs against a shaky Pitt team. The Panthers, like Duke, lost to Georgia Tech earlier, but lost to North Carolina by 18 points and Louisville by two touchdowns. The Panthers are getting far too much benefit of the doubt against a feisty Duke team. Elko will make them pay. Pick: Duke (+250)
When: Saturday, 12 p.m. ET | Where: Memorial Stadium — Lincoln, Nebraska
Featured Game | Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Wisconsin Badgers
Nebraska is in the midst of a four-game losing streak, but the only multi-score losses came against Michigan and Illinois; losses to Minnesota and Purdue came by a combined 13 points. The Cornhuskers have a major opportunity to pick up a win for interim coach Mickey Joseph as they face off against the Badgers, which are also led by an interim coach, Jim Leonhard
The Badgers lost 24-10 against Iowa a week ago and struggled in a loss to Michigan State earlier this season. The Badgers have effectively followed quarterback Graham Mertz’s turnover woes, and betting on the embattled signal-caller to struggle for the third week in a row is solid enough to take the big line. Pick: Nebraska (+360)
When: Saturday, 2 p.m. ET | Where: Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium — Greenville, North Carolina
Featured Game | East Carolina Pirates vs. Houston Cougars
One of the most exciting quarterback battles in the country will take place in North Carolina on Saturday. East Carolina has wins over Memphis, UCF and BYU in the past four weeks, along with a tight loss to Cincinnati. Quarterback Holton Ahlers has been dynamic with 2,912 yards passing and 20 touchdowns.
However, Houston quarterback Clayton Tune ranks among the most productive passers in the country with more than 3,000 yards and 31 touchdowns to his name. Coogs receiver Nathaniel Dell has cleared 1,000 yards receiving and 13 touchdowns with 390 yards over the past four weeks. Houston has the ability to go over the ECU defense — will they do it in Greenville? Pick: Houston (+185)
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET | Where: Kansas Memorial Stadium — Lawrence, Kansas
Featured Game | Kansas Jayhawks vs. Texas Longhorns
The Longhorns rate exceptionally well in advanced statistics, but they have put together a masterclass in finding ways to blow games in two years under Steve Sarkisian. Seven of Texas’ 11 losses under Sarkisian have involved second-half collapses. Quarterback Quinn Ewers has also completed just 45% of his passes over the past three games.
The Jayhawks earned their first bowl trip since 2009 despite losing starting quarterback Jalon Daniels after five games. Daniels could be back against the Longhorns this weekend, but backup Jason Bean has still showed major upside, posting nearly 300 total yards of offense per game with 18 touchdowns in five games. If things get into a shootout for the second year in a row, Kansas can keep up. Pick: Kansas (+260)
When: Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET | Where: Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium — Norman, Oklahoma
Featured Game | Oklahoma Sooners vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys
When Oklahoma State quarterback Spencer Sanders is healthy, the Cowboys are perhaps the best team in the Big 12. Sanders came off the bench and spurred 10 unanswered points in a 20-14 win over Iowa State with 84 yards passing and a touchdown. Despite the struggles of the past few weeks, Oklahoma State still sits at 7-3 with an outside route to the Big 12 Championship Game.
The Sooners only have two wins in Big 12 play vs. Kansas and at Iowa State. Oklahoma is fresh off an embarrassing 23-20 loss against West Virginia despite a healthy roster. Mike Gundy lost six straight matchups against Oklahoma, but snapped the streak last season in Stillwater. There’s little guarantee that Brent Venables will have his number the way Lincoln Riley did. Pick: Oklahoma State (+235)
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Last Week |
2-3 |
+5.28 |
|
Season |
10-25 |
+11.34 |
Which college football picks can you make with confidence in Week 12, and which top-20 teams will go down hard? Visit SportsLine to see which teams will win and cover the spread — all from a proven computer model that has returned almost $3,000 in profit over the past six-plus seasons — and find out.
